Because the stakes are so high for so many folks involved in all of the various budget debates and log-rolling (both in the State House and in local districts) there undoubtedly will be lots of numbers and projections presented in the coming weeks. We will try to stay on top of the ones that seem relevant.

But this report from NYC's Education Priorities Panel on city education spending is a good example of how differently reasonable folks can look at the same big-picture budgeting issue. The report describes the following climate: 16,000 fewer city students for this school year (declining birth rates) coupled with a school budget that has grown by nearly 3/4 of a billion dollars in the last year. So again, just to be clear enrollment goes down, spending goes up.

Many charter school operators have been conditioned to think in terms that are the exact opposite, i.e. that dollars follow students, and as enrollment increases, spending follows accordingly. One longtime charter school person the other day told me she couldn't understand why so many people have trouble seeing that if students leave a school system, the cost of educating the child leaves along with them.

Many CCLs (Charter Cap Lovers) will note that it is much more complicated than that, but it is worth noting here how drastically different people are capable of viewing this phenomenon. On the one hand, there are those who think that actual enrollment should play a role in funding (a school with 10 kids gets less than a school with 20 kids.)

But on the other end of the spectrum on this debate are those like the EPP, which calls "reprehensible" the idea that funding for individual NYC schools would decrease if enrollment also decreased. Notes the EPP:

In the rest of the state, school district budget policies have resulted in
higher per-pupil expenditures and smaller class sizes whenever there is a
student enrollment decrease. Current city budget policies will not result in
these instructional improvements, but the reverse. Class sizes will not
decrease because enrollment decreases immediately result
in fewer teachers. Any school where student registers have declined will also face
difficult choices as to what out-of-classroom staff to eliminate, not just the reduction
of teaching staff.

To be fair, EPP makes a very interesting case in noting that state funding to NYC will continue to increase (and 3/4 of a billion dollars a year is quite an increase) when enrollment decreases, raising obvious questions about where it is all going (if spending at the school-level is decreasing due to enrollment.) Watch for these differing opinions and viewpoints over enrollment and spending patterns to get interesting very soon. Some districts that have been complaining about having to make payments to charter schools could just turn out to be spending much, much more per student in their own schools when all is said and done.